VEGAS TRADES GOLD IMAGE

VEGAS TRADES GOLD IMAGE
Showing posts with label stop hunts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stop hunts. Show all posts

Monday, May 21, 2012

STOP HUNT MONDAY


                              Some Days You Feel Like The Fox

Ever since gold rallied above 1580 the other day, the “nibble nibble BOOM!” orders from the Central Planners have been hot and heavy. The manipulations can especially be seen in the last 30-60 seconds of most 5M candlesticks; only somebody who could care less about price would consistently allow Blythe and her crew to butcher their orders in this way.

I don’t think I can ever remember another time when price, from second to second, has been so chaotic and disjointed in gold. Watching prices, you have no idea if the next second is going to quote a bid anywhere near where it was a second earlier. What looks good one second literally stinks the next.

“Run little fox, run!”

Overnight, as if on cue, the “Lemmings in Asia” took the market up to the 1599 level. I guess when you sell it from 1560 all the way down to 1528 the previous 2 days, 1599 looks like a bargain buy.

“Mrs. Wantanabe, please go find a job will ya?”

Over in the currency arena, we got the “Flying Wedge of Death” going on in some of the majors, particularly EURUSD. We got record short positions in the Euro, so until some of these weak hands get shaken out, the market is subject to quick, sharp, and vicious short covering rallies, especially in the off hours and near the European close [9:30 A.M. – 10;30 A.M. Chicago time].

After the $140 sell off [1670 – 1530] in gold, we’ve now rallied back half-way to just in front of 1600. I would expect a few attempts at 1600, but ultimately I think the market needs to step back and do some backing and filling below 1580 before it can really go higher.

Ultimately, it’s going to be the Fed June Meeting that holds the short-term key for gold prices. If Weimar Ben throws cold water on further QE, price action is going to get ugly quick. Until then, prices probably will be contained in the 1550 – 1610 area; price will move on perceptions of change in the QE dynamic.

Really, what choice do they have but to print?

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

Friday, April 13, 2012

GOLD MEETS STUPID


                                          I Bet He Trades Gold

It’s Friday, so that means something stupid [at least once, probably more] will definitely happen in the marketplace sometime today. OK, in 3…2…1…

How about that $5 dive at 10:55 A.M. [Chicago time]?  Twenty minutes later what $5 drop? Was your sell stop in there from yesterday? I expected this stop hunt next week, but alas you can’t stop the central planners when they get an idea.

“Errrr, hang on a sec there vegas, what makes you think we’re done yet?”

“Well, you really can’t keep them planners from planning now can you?”

And just when you think it’s safe to swim in the water -  KABOOOOM! Nice drop over the Noon hour to the low. If you’re long what’s another $10 / oz on the downside? OK, not enough punishment for ya today and you say you need more?

“Sure, c’mon in and get long some more; how about a move down to 1649?”

Welcome to Friday trouble;  we have your reservation and we’ve been waiting for you.

Back in the day, I hated trading in the last 90 minutes of the session; just too much can happen that gets you in trouble. Today, that distinction goes to Friday in our 24/5 trading environment. Spikes, drops, more spikes, etc., etc. I saw more $1 moves in 15 seconds today than I have seen in all the other days combined. So, make whatever, and take the next train to Clarksville.

The official version of the day’s events, by the financial press who don’t have a clue, will be that China GDP [reported last night] came in a bit soft of expectations and that led to softness in gold. Really? How about it’s Friday and the stuff is up about $40 / oz. and you got bills to pay and a significant other that wants some money for something? You decide. [Well, it was up $40.]

Of course, as today proves in spades, we always have to be mindful of the IBC owned by the Fed, traded at the JPM prop desk, that can put spot gold anywhere they want, anytime they want over the course of a day. Not so great over the long run, but any given day? Sure.

That’s why you always have to trade with stops. I know, I know, I can hear your screams of anguish as I write; but the God awful truth is you can’t trade without ‘em. Because as stupid as you might feel about getting your stop hit today at 1662 or 1654 or 1649, imagine the nausea of pushing the button at 1620. Now you’re really talking stupid.

Over at my PAMM website [ http://vegaspamm.blogspot.com ] I’ve put up the daily Fib cycle charts for XAUUSD, EURJPY, and AUDUSD. I’ll be doing this every Friday to try and give you a current count of where each market is at; this way you don’t have to waste time going back to see where we were [de nada] or wonder where we are at now.

Have a good weekend everyone.

-vegas

Friday, March 30, 2012

BREAK OUT THE PARTY HATS


                                      Relax, There’s Next Week

Yippee! We finally got a $10 range in gold for the day at 12:30 P.M. Add to that a return of the “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] and it makes for a very ugly trading day. Days like this make me wonder how it is possible for dealers to look at themselves in the mirror and not puke.

Everything on the board lagged today, with almost no interest in trading other than conducting stop hunts. Pick your market, it wouldn’t make much difference. There isn’t anything that did anything of significance. [Except for the crude oil plunge between 1:00 and 1:30 PM to shake out some longs.]

“Is the circus hiring?”

Second weekend in a row I’m not real happy with the action in gold or the slippage induced fills by dealers. The entire month of March yielded very little in terms of gold going somewhere: up or down, it doesn’t make any difference. We race like we are on the back of some photon going at the speed of light, only to stop in an instant and go the other way with a vengeance.

Maybe it’s just me, but the market lacks any conviction that lasts longer than a day or two. The market is jerking everybody around.

And don’t for a second think the gold cartel manipulators don’t absolutely love this; they don’t care about prices or profits, they only care about you losing. The goal of manipulation is not to directly affect prices, but to get you to do it for them. Quote stuffing and painting the tape are among the favorite strategies, and today we had plenty of both.

I need a weekend. Have a good one everybody.

-vegas

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

THE GREAT LEAP YEAR MASSACRE



                         Meanwhile, At The Bullish Gold Institute


 “Ohhhh  boy!”

If there ever was a day for capital preservation, THIS WAS IT. After my first crude oil trade, I deliberately walked away.

“Gosh vegas, why did you do that?”

“I don’t know, maybe it was the $50 / oz decapitation stop hunt of longs when the market went through 1762. Or, maybe it was the $1 / oz price quote changes, which I can assure you would have been larger if you bought or sold. Or, maybe it is the fact that my first priority as a trader is to stay out of trouble.

On February 21rst I posted an article “Cracks In The Foundation”, in which I told all of you that things weren’t right in the gold market; that what I was seeing told me to stay out. Now you know why.

For months I have been saying to all of you to NOT place your gold sell stops where everybody else places theirs. After today, if you still have a trading account, do you understand now?

Going forward, gold is not out of the woods. If we get an early rally in Asia, the dealers and every hedge fund in existence will sell it with a vengeance. And if you’re long, and have your sell stop anywhere between 1701 – 1699, don’t be surprised if you get filled at 1688 or lower.

Compounding the problem is the very large purchases [see www.zerohedge.com ] of silver by hedge funds in the last few days. Where do they go now?

Hopefully gold is starting to regain its normal trade; we’ll see what happens tomorrow and Friday and I’ll comment about it then.

Have a good day everyone.

For my take on crude [ http://vegaspamm.blogspot.com ].

-vegas

P.S. Too late. Gold below 1700 as I post.

Friday, February 3, 2012

INNOCENCE FOREVER


                                   Cute & Fuzzy Metals Dealers

Is it any wonder I hate NFP [Non Farm Payroll] Fridays? Why, what can possibly go wrong in a shortened trading day going into a weekend? I mean, those cute & fuzzy dealers will just do everything for you to make trading a pleasant experience don’t-cha-know.

“Excuse me sir? Yea, you don’t know me but I’m a metals dealer, and I just dropped by before NFP to see if you’d like some chocolate chip cookies I baked this morning?”

“Super, take all you want!”

As always, the “fun” begins a few minutes before the report hits at 7:30 AM [Chicago time] every first Friday of the month.

But first, a subliminal message from MR. MARKET !!

                                     Follow This Advice Please

Who says we can’t put in a $20 / oz. range in 15 minutes?

Oh, but wait, the “fun” is just beginning. On the rebound rally from the low, in case you wanted to sell, the MetaTrader 4 trading platform goes down for about 200 seconds. When it comes back up the rally is over and we are $4 / oz. lower from the relief rally high.

“Silly rabbit, selling rallies in a freefall market is for dealers, not for retail traders. By the way, how are those cookies?”

Now for “fun” Part Deux; “Hey, anybody up for a gap inducing stop hunt?”

“Hey man, we’re really sorry about that stop you had at 1742 and got filled at 1736; market forces don’t-cha-know. Hey, how are those cookies?”

Of course, the machines don’t magically go down on the rally from the bottom at 1732.

So, as you recover from the self-inflicted wounds of a NFP Friday, ask yourself why you even let that “innocent” guy in the door and took some of his cookies.

Have a great weekend everyone! [Go Patriots.] Catch my comments on today’s PAMM trading [posted every day between 2 PM – 4 PM Chicago time] at my PAMM website; http://vegaspamm.blogspot.com

-vegas

Thursday, February 2, 2012

THERE ARE NO BARS ON THE LION CAGE



                              The Slowest Traders Get Eaten First


We have seen a noticeable yet subtle shift in gold trading these last few weeks. Gone like a distant memory are the $25 - $35 daily ranges with subsequent intra day volatility. It feels like we are at the zoo and the lions are free to roam amongst the crowd.

“Errrr honey, be careful when, where and how you walk; let’s not attract attention to ourselves lest we be the ones that………… Ahhhhhhhh, RUN!”

One of the “fingerprints” of low volatility trading are the spikes and beatdowns that come out of nowhere; convincing you along the way that something “significant” has just happened and deserves a position of some sort.

What takes the market 4 hours to rally $3 / oz., takes about 90 seconds to unravel and convince you we are headed south in a big way. “Uhhhhhh, no.”

A stop hunt commences on the upside, we rally $5 / oz. in 90 seconds and you are convinced we are going up $20 / oz. in the next 30 minutes. “Uhhhhhhh, no.”

Welcome to low volatility trading; account erosion starts in 5…4…3…

Far more “professional” traders get killed in a tight daily range trade environment than they ever do when the daily ranges are $50 / oz. Constantly going orbital and then subsequently diving bring about swift account erosion and pain.

“Honey, I got bad news.”

“Why whatever could have happened dear; I checked CNBC and gold was up $0.75 today. What possibly could go wrong?”

                              Illusion? Nahhhh, It's Real Baby!!

Amazing how he can pull that Queen of Hearts out of nowhere. Amazing how you can get shellacked and the market goes absolutely nowhere! And the worst part: lack of a daily range means that when you get hit like this, you can’t recover because there is no volatility to help whatever position you take. You are reduced to scalping for ticks.

The only thing you can do is reduce, not increase, position size and be one of the first out on any move.

Just because you can’t see the lion, doesn’t mean he isn’t in the bushes thinking about you for lunch.

When does it end? “When it does.”

Have a great day everyone. Comments on today’s action at http://vegaspamm.blogspot.com

-vegas