AND THE WINNER IS …?

                             “Vanna, Show Chip What He Won”

What if they had an election and it didn’t matter? Kind of like an NFL Super Bowl overtime coin flip that lands on the ground on “edge”; and you flip it again and still it lands on “edge”. The Greeks couldn’t collectively decide this past weekend who they wanted in charge to sell the country down the proverbial rat hole to the banksters.

Well, nobody asked me … but ….

They could let the Neo-Nazi “Golden Dawn” party run security and law enforcement; the radical leftist party “Syriza” could be in charge of education [just like in Amerika] and welfare; the communists could just hang around and cause trouble and offer nothing; and the “New Democrats” conservative party can run the country and be in charge of finance. What’s not to like here?

Like Butch Cassidy once said, “I got vision and the rest of the world’s wearin’ bifocals.”

Then there’s gold; as nasty a market as the political rhetoric coming out of Europe. After what happened to me on Friday …I can’t tell you when the next time I will trade this. To recap, for those of you who don’t know, I was up 5% and then I was down 12% within seconds. Did I mention I hate gold dealers?

Watching Greece is like watching a soap opera on TV; no matter how long you watch nothing ever gets solved. It just keeps going on with infinite iterations of adulterous affairs, back stabbing, and people selling out for the money. Geeeeesh, what else is new? Sooner or later you just have to walk away because you can’t take it anymore. It’s just the same old crap.

So, no new coalition is going to be formed to run Greece and “new” elections in 2 months to do it all over again. Meanwhile in Spain, yields on 10 YR. toilet paper are over 7% and rising; in Italy, yields on 10 YR paper is over 6% and rising; and in Ireland they want to “renegotiate” their bailout.

As it says in the Bible; “Nothing new under the sun.”

The markets now are in no mood for “happy talk” from the bozo’s running things; they want concrete plans, not spin. Expect the half-life from spin to get shorter as time passes this week.

Oh, and let’s not forget Wednesday “the Bernank” is up on tap, and he better show the markets some love with QE3 or else. Markets are looking for at least $150 billion in new money printing stimulus for the prop trading desks at JPM and Vampire Squid.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

EVERYTHING IS FIXED NOW, RIGHT?

                                         Europe In A Nutshell

For you grown-ups out there, this is like watching your kids get a free credit card from their grandparents; not a pretty sight. But not to worry, because everything is now fine in Spain because the smartest-guys-in-the-room have just thrown a check their way to the tune of a “1” with “11” zeroes behind it. Where this money comes from nobody has a clue.

But we are all smart enough to know by now that politicians solve a problem, not by actually solving anything, but by talking about it. Because you see, talking about it to them means it’s on their radar now, and not to worry, we are on it. Uh huh.

The Germans, natch, are expected to lend their AAA credit rating to this hair-brained scheme, but in all things like making sausage and passing out 100 billion Euros, the details are gonna get a bit sloppy. For one, nobody in Germany, except the Pols, are for this. Second, it ain’t gonna matter because on June 17^th, the Greeks say adios to the Euro. And third, as if we need another reason, every other deadbeat sovereign member of the PIIGS gang now wants the same deal as Spain.

“Hey, where’s our hundred billion with no strings attached?”

I swear, it’s enough to make you think the Pols are really in the biz of herding cats. A tough gig no?

                                         Politicians Take Note

Of course, with record spec short positions via the Crimex CME in EURUSD, it’s not really a surprise that we gapped up 100 big ones on the opening in Asia last night. Did you hear the big – WHEEEEW !! – whoosh out of Europe last night? But sadly, with all Ponzi schemes the half-life on this “solution” hasn’t even lasted 12 hours.

And gold? Firmly in control of the Central Planners and weakening as I write.

“But QE3 and QE4; c’mon man, money printing, ya know?”       

Yea, I will make sure and tell that to the prop desk over at JPM that is selling with both hands.”

And so, we find ourselves on countdown to next Tuesday, when we know for sure the Greeks are deadbeats, and the newly emboldened leftists tell Europe to go pound sand with their debt.

 Anybody want to make book on this?

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

THE TRAIN WRECK IS COMING

                                           World Economies

Hold your nose every weekend from here on out. You can absolutely count on the world’s top clowns to conference and decide something incredibly stupid to stink the joint up; the only thing we don’t know is which weekend it will occur.

That Greece and Spain are toast should be no surprise to anybody with a brain. At some point though, math brings everybody back to reality. We are at that point in time and history. Markets are not going to allow the Pols to kick the proverbial can down the road anymore with shady accounting gimmicks.

Of course, when the true SHTF comes, it won’t be during market hours; it will be over a weekend. Big money hedge funds [that are tied in politically], TBTF [to big to fail] banks, and politicians need the time to prepare the inevitable for the masses. When Spain goes bust, it will happen over a weekend; when Greece leaves the Euro, it will happen over a weekend. The carnage will simply be a blimp on the computer screens across the world come Monday morning.

Everything is fine, until it isn’t.

The real train wreck for the world, when it comes, will be here in Amerika; if Fearless Leader gets re-elected it will definitely happen in 2013 or 2014. If Romney gets elected, we may have some time as markets will cut him some slack; but if he turns out to be Bush III, the end comes in 2014 or 2015.

The math doesn’t lie; China is positioning itself to be the world’s next superpower; they own trillions in $$ treasury debt; they will call the shots; they are accumulating oil and precious metals in unbelievable amounts. Remember the Golden Rule?

Them that has the gold makes the rules.

At a time of their choosing, they will walk away from supporting U.S. debt. Who buys it then?

Everybody that sits watching TV, from the relative comfort and safety of your living room, better reconcile the very high probability that life as you know it is going to end and get very, very ugly.

You think riots and anarchy can only happen in Greece? With almost 50 million people on food stamp debit cards [oh, excuse me, nutritional assistance], what happens when those cards don’t get loaded some month? You think millions are gonna sit back and just relax while they starve?

“Snake Pliskin where are you?”

Sure, the straight forward problem is math; the real problem is that there are no leaders willing to bite the bullet and lead.

I don’t know if Mitt Romney can prevent the U.S. from the abyss; I am quite sure Chalky Soetero is planning on it.

Meanwhile ……. It’s the weekend and time for a chuckle. Without further ado …..

Have a good weekend everyone.

-vegas

QE WHERE ARE YOU?

                                      Gold Trading Directions

Just a friendly reminder from our pals at JPM that the rock needs to be rolled up the hill one more time; in a research note today they are now predicting more QE from the ECB at the June and July monetary meetings with a cut in rates in September.

So, after a $40 rally off the lows, muppets clients now have an official reason to buy gold at today’s highs near 1577. Maybe some day the public wakes up, but I doubt it; after all, these are the smartest guys in the room remember? That the market will undoubtedly back off from here on “profit taking” [thank you CNBC money honeys] isn’t anything to worry about. Neither is the probable fact your investment adviser sold the market aggressively in the 1575-ish area while you were buying.

“Hey man, it’s just a coincidence.”

So, we now have QE baked into the gold cake not only from the Fed, but now from the ECB as well. Super; when they don’t deliver what then? Who is left to buy? Even if they deliver, if we are still in this price area of 1550 – 1600, who is going to take the lead and take on the Central Planners above 1630?

One thing I am fairly certain of is the desire, on the part of Chalky Soetero and his pals, to keep gold out of the news as election season heats up by the day and week. No way do they want the sheeple people of Amerika to wonder why gold is rising? They might get ideas.

On  the currency front, if it’s daylight in Europe, some politician is lying and desperately trying to convince someone, anyone, that Plan G will work [even though the trial balloons of Plan A-F were dismal in approach and can’t work]. We will get fireworks on the upside as over leveraged shorts will bail in a panic [like today for instance] but the big money knows Europe and the EURUSD are toast.

It isn’t a question of if, it’s only a matter of when; what weekend do they announce Greece is gone out of the Euro? Come every Sunday afternoon from here on out, every money manager on the planet will be glued to the screen to see what’s happening at the open in New Zealand.

And lest you think it’s only Greece, the fellas in Spain and Italy will be watching very closely to evaluate their exit options as well. Forget the politicos; if there lips are moving they are lying.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

ROLL ROCK UP HILL REDUX

                                       Attention Gold Buyers

I’ve had this nightmare dream before; I’m driving along and everything’s fine and then out-of-the-blue the rocks come falling down crushing my car and me inside. You wake up and realize it ain’t happenin’, but nonetheless for a few seconds it’s a little disturbing.

How many times have we seen this scenario: sharp rally, crush shorts, turn common tech indicators bullish, get public long [again] at or near the top within 100 hours?

As the world falls apart and specifically Europe implodes, the smartest people in the room have just bet, in the last 48 hours, that Weimar Ben will hit the Cntrl-P button over at the Mariner Eccles building and start QE3 in June. If we don’t get it, a whole lot of people are gonna be trapped inside my dream.

I’m going to go out on the proverbial prediction limb here.

I think we have seen the low in gold up and until the Fed meeting in June. I can see about 1550-1557 on the low side and maybe 1610-1625 on the upside until then. But here’s the rub; if we don’t get QE3 from the Fed in June, and 1530 -1525 subsequently gets taken out, we are headed for a major debacle in price on the downside. And with that comes many months of price congestion and basing before gold can ever hope to go higher.

Around the 1580 level and higher today I have seen the “nibble nibble BOOM!!” phenomena from the Central Planners. There’s no doubt in my mind they were heavy handed in the market today. What do you suppose that means?

While the entire world goes ga-ga over the FaceBook IPO today [expecially California State Tax Apparatchiks], Greece is toast, Spain implodes, and European GDP is falling rapidly. Granted we needed some kind of rally because so many people have piled into the short side of gold.

[Here’s a thought; what if FaceBook opens higher and closes lower? What happens then?]

But remember this: in a bear market [not just gold but any market] the rallies are killer – they come out of nowhere and they are vicious – and they convince a whole lot of traders that the trend has just changed and now we can pile into the long side of the trade. If you look at a daily chart of gold this is the type of action we have seen since 1800.

Ultimately, after the stupid money has piled into the wrong side, price rolls over and we get the rinse & repeat cycle we have seen ad infinitum nauseum  since last Fall; buy the rally get stopped out [pick number of days here ___ ] later.

You can rationalize a lot of things, but you can’t ignore the math; Europe is complete toast and the U.S. [add Japan too] is next. Stocks are so overvalued, pumped up via the Fed to get Chalky Soetero reelected, and give the illusion that things are just fine.

We have started to see stocks roll over world-wide; practically every major stock index is lower on the year. When the complete “risk off” comes, just remember gold isn’t immune.

Meanwhile … Chuckle of the day before the weekend.

Have a good weekend everyone.

-vegas

Update 3:15PM Chicago Time

In case you were wondering why I have Friday rules, I present EURUSD as prima facie evidence of what the Central Planners can do when conditions are thin and stops are on the plate. At 2:00 P.M. we had a melt up stop hunt in the EURUSD of about 60 pips within a few minutes on zero news.

Whatever can make your weekend can destroy your weekend. I wonder how many Euro traders are crying in beer as I write; only it won’t just last a few minutes, it will be there all weekend into the open on Sunday night. Been there done that once in 1980; ain’t ever happened since.

Sometimes it may seem to those who are new to trading and creating wealth that my methods can be restrictive and that I may miss some profit opportunities for no apparent reason. Lesson #1; first do no harm, then make money. I rest my case.

The Dow 30 closed near the lows of the day as FaceBook closed at $38. Another pump and dump scam Ma & Pa Kettle will eventually lose money.

Over the weekend [probably Sunday] I’ll have a special post. Tune in for details.

HEY EUROPE SHUT UP

                                              Trader Manual

It seems like every day Europe sells everything in sight, then when they close at about 9:30 A.M. [Chicago time], as if somebody shuts the lights off, markets turn on a dime and rally like crazy into the close. Rinse and repeat almost every day.

It’s frustrating dealing with these European bozos on a constant basis. They skew gold, the currency pairs, and equity and bond markets; close them down and markets trade on a more normal basis. Why should today be any different?

I thought the “Lemmings in Asia” were a pain; they’re nothing compared to the unbridled selling of everything with a $ sign on it just so they can keep their bankrupt banks alive for another day.

If I could round up every politician, I’d line them all up against the wall and ………

Today we find out from the politicos that Greece has no money and maybe they shouldn’t get any more; gee, ya think? And Spain nationalized some banks; yea, that will solve the problems. Of course, this hammered gold and the currency pairs, and within minutes we were sharply higher. Seems somebody had to get the final sell stops below the market.

Go ahead, call me cynical, but the outright blatant manipulation going on is shocking to me. Sure, I have seen a lot of things in my trading career going back into the late 70’s, but I haven’t seen anything like this. It’s breathtaking and disturbing at the same time.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas