LOADED DICE

                     Did I Tell You To Park Money in a Cyprus Bank?

I was going to post earlier, but I got stuck in line at a Cyprus Bank waiting to get my money out.

So, let me get this straight; the people [and institutions] responsible for this mess, the ones who have the pedigreed degrees from all the right places – the wizards of smart – the ones who are invisible and immune from public scrutiny because they work worship at the altar of bureaucracy – the ones who have large, bloated salaries that are at least 3 times larger than similar work in the private sector – the ones who know better than you what’s good for you because you can’t possibly live your life in the proper way – they’ve decided that people who have absolutely nothing to do with this mess are the ones who are gonna pay?

Don’t anybody tell me Europe is a democracy. Anybody with a single functioning brain cell between their ears would never ever place another Euro in a European bank until these apparatchiks are hanging from the nearest telephone pole.

Make no mistake; this event had the blessing of Chalky Soetero and his thug pals in Amerika. It’s only a matter of time before they come after your wealth and savings.

The way I see it, first they make sure all your guns and weapons have been confiscated through dictum – that way you can’t fight back – then they seize your wealth. What are you going to do, throw a stick at them?

When a whole bunch of Chalky voters get together in a dark urban alley to play street craps, and after the crowd loses their collective shirts due to loaded dice, the guy who brought the dice had better know how to run really, really fast.

Maggy Thatcher hit the nail on the proverbial head: “The problem with socialism is that sooner or later you run out of other people’s money.”

I hope the Pols in Europe know how to run really, really fast.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

TIME TO GO JOHN GALT

                     Just Watch How Bad The Next 4 Years Will Be

The have-nots have spoken; they want your money, property, and eventually your freedom. Now that Chalky has been re-elected by a dumbed-down Amerikan electorate, you have a matter of months to get your affairs [read money] in order and out of the country.

What this election means is simple; Amerika as it has been known is over. Socialism, class warfare, etc. is the meme of the day, and your money and freedom are at severe risk. Rising taxes, capital controls, and your loss of personal freedom are right around the corner.

I don’t know how much more blunt I have to be; get your money out of the US and get yourself as much precious metals as you can; then find a way to go “off the grid”. If possible, leave Amerika for greener pastures; it ain’t your father’s country anymore. Amerika is filled with parasites, free-loaders, and those that demand what you make and earn; now above 50% for the first time in history.

Go ahead and ignore my warnings at your peril; like Jews in Germany circa 1930, many of you will scoff at the handwriting on the wall. Your delusion doesn’t change the truth.

In the weeks and months ahead, the producers in society will disappear. Anybody with any productive brains is already making plans to leave; the engine of world growth known as the US is over. Unemployment will rise, the deficits will skyrocket, taxes will stifle growth for the foreseeable future, and precious metal prices will go orbital at some point.

This is a very sad day for personal freedom. Welcome to permanent misery Amerika; you get what you deserve.

-vegas

IT’S A MYSTERY TO ME

                            Some Things Left Better Unexplained

Some observations from my time off other than the fact that snow makes for really terrible snorkeling:

1)      That 40 something percent of the US population would still vote for Chalky Soetero tells me that collectively the Amerikan people are dumber than a bag of radishes.

2)      That the Euro is above 1.30 is testament to the fact the dollar is complete crap and it’s going to get worse before it gets better.

3)      Gold is getting rolled up the proverbial hill for another manipulation on the downside before the election.

4)      No matter how much money you give a woman to spend it isn’t enough, and finally,

5)      No matter how much time off from trading I take, it isn’t enough either. Go figure.

On a positive note, I ka-chinged the EURJPY for a +10% gain today, so all the hedonistic pleasure actually paid off for clients. See, I told you.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

WHY DOES ANYBODY TRUST THE U.S.?

                               What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Well well, while I was away snorkeling in the snow cliff diving, a funny thing happened to investors all over the world who again like idiots simply don’t seem to ever learn a lesson.

I am of course referring to the liquidation bankruptcy of PFG Best. Let’s see, $400 million in missing segregated customer funds held at JPM; Gosh, we ain’t ever seen that before; errrrrr except with REFCO, MF Global, and now PFG. Give it a little time and I’m sure the CME thugs will have had their grimy hands in it too.

And prey pray tell, what do they all have in common? Why of course, they all happened in the U.S. You know, that bastion of regulatory zeal where every investor is protected; until they ain’t. From the folks who couldn’t catch a cold in a sniffle factory, we are of course being told that justice will prevail. Errrrr, someday; right after they find the missing  large $1.4 from MF Global.

Seriously, what does it take for people to start asking WTF?

How many times can you hit a dumb animal in the head with a baseball bat before it sees you coming and simply says “I don’t think so”? Once natch. Not so easy with humans, who will rationalize to their hearts content while their pockets are picked clean by regulators, banks like JPM, and the aforementioned world’s most disgusting exchange.

Do I have to say this again?

Why does anybody trade with a U.S. broker?

You dolts out there who continue to place your hard-earned money with crooks in the U.S. financial system; what’s it gonna take? Sorry, when they vaporize your funds AGAIN SOMEPLACE ELSE I refuse to feel sorry for you.

Is it just me thinking this, or do all the crash test dummies live in Amerika?

Of course, Chalky Soetero’s pals have their fingerprints all over this. And while I am positive he is getting a cut somewhere somehow, his pals should be cuffed and marched off to the rock pile. Instead, they’ll be off fund raising somewhere for Mom, apple pie, and the Chicago way.

What a screwed up country.

Have a good day everyone. Be back soon full time from hedonistic pleasure.

-vegas

IT’S AUGUST ALREADY?

                          When In Doubt Ask A Higher Authority

What happened to July? It was here a few minutes ago.

Take a little time off, and first thing you know I’m in the hot tub time machine and BAMM! It’s August already? Who knew?

                                         It Ain’t Me, I Swear

Now, contrary to wild rumors swirling the internet, this isn’t me snorkeling. First of all, I’m allergic to snow, and second of all, no way would I snorkel with lime green swim fins. The naked part? Well ……

                   Hmmm ….. I wonder where EURJPY Is Trading?

I am partaking in some adventurous endeavors however, but always trying my best to keep my trunks on.

                                           July 2012 Trading

Spending 30 seconds looking over July charts, however, convinces me I didn’t miss much. Gold? Pulleeeeeeeeeze – anybody still trading this needs "Clowns” at his next Bar Mitzvah. Currencies? Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawn.

Ok, I’ll admit some movement in EURJPY, but really the markets are dead tired of the daily EUROFAIL [and all that goes with it], as well as the upcoming Preezy elections in the U.S. Fortunately for me, I haven’t had the misfortune of being inundated with Chalky Soetero bites in the last month from the MSM, so my spirits are high.

Upon further review, and of course checking in with “The Dude”, I’m gonna continue taking some time off for a couple of more weeks. It’s August for cryin’ out loud!

So, hang in there and try to remember –vegas is human and needs copious quantities of adolescent teenage fun to survive. I knew you would understand.

Have a good day everyone. Be back full time soon.

-vegas

A HIGHER CALLING

                                    This Can’t Be An Accident

Markets can wait a day. Gold, EURUSD, EURJPY, and all the others will be here tomorrow for me to comment. They will go up and down, but at the end of the day they will still be around and waiting for tomorrow.

No, today is reserved for something far more important than markets. There are at least two moments in a person’s life that have very special meaning; once when he/she stares into the abyss and wonders if there is a tomorrow, and when he/she is touched by God to do the extraordinary.

Are all of us who trade just defined by money? Were we born to just accumulate houses, bank accounts, cars, boats, vacation houses, Rolex watches, and Canadian Maple Leaf gold coins? Was I born just to be a trader with a credit balance? Is my whole life to be summed up by the old adage, “He who dies with the most stuff wins the game?”

“Geeeeez, in my heart and soul I hope not.”

Once, I stared straight into the abyss, and my mentor Burt pulled me out. Everything I have in the world I ultimately owe to him and a few others. It takes all of us way too long to learn no man is an island.

“Burt, wherever you are smiling, I want you to know that the most precious gift I treasure from our all too brief time together is knowing in my heart  that you cared when you didn’t have to. Now, it’s my turn.”

Within these past few months, I have come in contact with a family that needs our collective financial help. In a metaphorical sense, this isn’t about giving them fish; this is about helping a family that wants to learn how to fish.

While I provide some financial and other support, I absolutely don’t want this to be about me; I very much would like it to be about us. Can you, my beloved readers, and I come together through our mutual love of markets and make a difference in the lives of a single family facing a financial crisis?

I have set up a PayPal account for donations [ www.paypal.com ]. Please give whatever you can and make your donation to the email address barryhaigh@ymail.com and I will see that the money is directed properly. Please just check off the “friends and family” box at PayPal.

Now, I’m not some kind of 501 3(c) charity, professional fundraiser, or somebody in an Armani suit trying to get you to write a check to some campaign; I’m a trader by profession. But trading does not define me. It does not sum up to the person I am or want to be.

All I am is one individual trying to make a difference in the lives of a family that needs a break in a world gone completely nuts. They are good people staring into the abyss, and although they don’t know it yet, I’m not going to let it happen. At some point we all have that spiritual awakening inside us that commands us to do the right thing; this is one such moment for me and I would like you to join me.

In the days, weeks, and months that follow, I will provide the specific storyline and photos here on the web site, and how your contributions made a world of difference. Surprise, I’ll be adding pages to “Vegas Trades Gold” that take us away from trading but into humanity. For those of you who think traders are only about money, you are so, so wrong.

I’m not asking for the world here; give as little or as much as you feel you can, and we’ll see where the chips fall and take us.

I’m not Anna Wintour demanding you cough up a measly 40K to get your mug shot with Chalky Soetero in a completely worthless waste of money [and by the way, don’t be late]; I’m asking you to join me, from the trading community, to show this family that there are people who care when they don’t have to; that life should be about humanity and helping others. Not because somebody told us we have to, but because we want to.

“You gonna sit there and tell me nobody ever helped you?”

Tomorrow it’s back to all the worlds problems and how they can’t possibly be fixed with the clowns heading things up; and the obligatory dips and rips in the market that follow their inane comments. So, until tomorrow everyone, have a good day.

-vegas

IT’S QE OR ELSE

                              The Bernank: Man Of The Moment

Next week, the world literally turns its lonely eyes to the Mariner Eccles building for more “Hope & Change”.

“Ohhhhhhhh, Chalky Soetero is giving his umpteenth campaign speech?”

“Errrrrr, not quite.”

The world is hoping, praying really, that Weimar Ben opens the money printing monetary easing floodgates at the June Fed meeting. As with all things, the devil is in the details, and even if he comes through, the key will be if it was enough. Hide the kids if he does nothing.

The monkey wrench in the equation is Greece; with a newly elected socialist government only a couple of days old, and ready to tell the banksters in Brussels to go pound sand, how much of the taxpayers money does Ben give away?

Not to worry, Vampire Squid [GS] will let the moneycrats know what to deliver early next week before the meeting. The real question is which Belgian or French caterer is doing lunch. Remember, “The private sector is doing fine.”

Gold especially is subject to the “buy the rumor sell the fact” mantra of Trading 101. How many times have I warned [and been right by the way] that the rock gets rolled up the proverbial hill, only to be rolled back down when the Central Planners sense the public is now just a tad long the yellow stuff?

And on cue today, the EURUSD put on a blistering short covering rally because of course too many people are short the pair. Forget the disappointing retail sales figures; it’s all about QE and the “Hope” the Fed bails out Europe and saves the day; the “Change” of course is that something but failure will be the result. Now that’s what I call “Hope & Change” trader style.

Too bad it won’t change anything because Italy is next; say goodnight Europe, the party is over in 3 …. 2 ….. 1

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

SCHOOLYARD BULLIES

                                   This Is Who Represents You

What happens when a collective group of people are pushed to the edge of sanity by politicians? Well, if you live in Europe, you are about to find out. Italy declares bank “Holidays”; Switzerland is considering capital controls and travel controls; and to top it off, Saxo Bank [Netherlands] has quadrupled trading margins involving Swiss Francs [CHF].

The pain of Greece is clearly spreading. And while you will suffer, the politicians will conference somewhere where the hookers are plentiful and the caterers superb. If there are any companies out there whose biz is booming it is A) caterers, and B) those that make paper for Drachmas.

Markets are on the proverbial “pins and needles” Defcon 1 red alert.

Gold was its usual self [as of this year], going $20 in 20 minutes; the new normal is to see just how fast money destruction can occur in the span of the shortest amount of time possible. Makes no difference up or down, although stop destruction on the down side has always been a crowd favorite amongst professional traders.

Record short EURUSD spec positions at the Crimex [let’s face it, that’s what they are – just ask any former MF Global customer] means that any burp from a Pol in Europe will jerk the market one way or the other; today was no different. Although today isn’t over as I write this, we definitely got the "Flying Wedge of Death" going on in most pairs.

What needs to happen isn’t going to happen; shut the politicians up and get them in a room until something concrete and credible is brought forth they can agree. And just to be clear; no hookers and sea bass in white wine sauce until you got something – understand?

“How do you expect us to live?”

Of course, as the world knows to well, this weekend comes the Greek elections. I’m just thinkin’ out loud here; by any chance is there a full moon this Sunday?

Maybe what the continent needs is some Chalky Soetero “Hope & Change”. Given how his campaign for “Preeeezy” is going, putting him in Europe for a few weeks would probably improve his poll numbers.

If this wasn’t so serious and affecting so many people it would be hilarious.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

THE TRAIN WRECK IS COMING

                                           World Economies

Hold your nose every weekend from here on out. You can absolutely count on the world’s top clowns to conference and decide something incredibly stupid to stink the joint up; the only thing we don’t know is which weekend it will occur.

That Greece and Spain are toast should be no surprise to anybody with a brain. At some point though, math brings everybody back to reality. We are at that point in time and history. Markets are not going to allow the Pols to kick the proverbial can down the road anymore with shady accounting gimmicks.

Of course, when the true SHTF comes, it won’t be during market hours; it will be over a weekend. Big money hedge funds [that are tied in politically], TBTF [to big to fail] banks, and politicians need the time to prepare the inevitable for the masses. When Spain goes bust, it will happen over a weekend; when Greece leaves the Euro, it will happen over a weekend. The carnage will simply be a blimp on the computer screens across the world come Monday morning.

Everything is fine, until it isn’t.

The real train wreck for the world, when it comes, will be here in Amerika; if Fearless Leader gets re-elected it will definitely happen in 2013 or 2014. If Romney gets elected, we may have some time as markets will cut him some slack; but if he turns out to be Bush III, the end comes in 2014 or 2015.

The math doesn’t lie; China is positioning itself to be the world’s next superpower; they own trillions in $$ treasury debt; they will call the shots; they are accumulating oil and precious metals in unbelievable amounts. Remember the Golden Rule?

Them that has the gold makes the rules.

At a time of their choosing, they will walk away from supporting U.S. debt. Who buys it then?

Everybody that sits watching TV, from the relative comfort and safety of your living room, better reconcile the very high probability that life as you know it is going to end and get very, very ugly.

You think riots and anarchy can only happen in Greece? With almost 50 million people on food stamp debit cards [oh, excuse me, nutritional assistance], what happens when those cards don’t get loaded some month? You think millions are gonna sit back and just relax while they starve?

“Snake Pliskin where are you?”

Sure, the straight forward problem is math; the real problem is that there are no leaders willing to bite the bullet and lead.

I don’t know if Mitt Romney can prevent the U.S. from the abyss; I am quite sure Chalky Soetero is planning on it.

Meanwhile ……. It’s the weekend and time for a chuckle. Without further ado …..

Have a good weekend everyone.

-vegas

LET THERE BE LIGHT

                                       A Moment Of Clarity

Perceptions are everything; reality is nothing. The former is fluid; the latter is fixed.

Today, we know 2 things we didn’t know yesterday. The first is that Public Sector Unions are toast [thank you people of Wisconsin]. It was an impressive victory [about 8 points] for Scott Walker, the incumbent Republican Governor, and a total rebuke of spend, spend, and spend some more [of your money] union thugs.

Take away union vote rigging in libtard nation Madison, and decaying corrupt Milwaukee, and the margin of victory probably really was on the order of double digits.

A world away some hours later we get the Vampire Squid Alumni, Mario the Great, holding his usual ECB presser after the ECB formally met to discuss monetary policy for the Eurozone. Like Greenspan, and all true great economists, he said nothing better than just about anybody normal.

“Spin it all you want Mario, you have no clue what to do to get Europe out of its mess.”

Which brings me to gold: it’s now $100 off the lows on the heroin hopes of QE3 on June 20 from our buddy Weimar Ben. Anybody but me ever hear of the adage buy the rumor sell the fact?

From a trading standpoint, who isn’t already long gold looking for a pop up if we get the anticipated money printing easing? The Fed’s street mouth piece, J. Hilsenrath over at the WSJ [Wall Street Journal] confirmed it yesterday. This guy leaks more info from the Fed than “Deep Throat” ever did on Nixon back in the 70’s. So, when it comes, who’s gonna be there to buy it from you at a higher price?

And what if we don’t get it? Pleeeeeeze, don’t write me with what happened to your “protective” sell stop.

And what if that election in Dairyland is the start of something bigger come fall? With Chalky Soetero gone and a true Republican House and Senate, can and would the Amerikan economy be unleashed for growth and maybe a balanced budget? I dunno, we’ll see.

What I do know is this: gold is not a one-way street. Jumping back in the vegas hot tub time machine once again, I take you back to this exact moment on the calendar 32 years ago. Gold has come off its historic highs in January of $850 / oz.; pessimism is high, Carter looks like a shoe-in for re-election, and then gold bugs are talking about price levels for gold that make people’s eyes glaze over, and budget deficits are huge and growing.

Then, an interesting thing happened; Reagan was elected and set off the 80’s boom and gold went into a 20+ year bear market that saw prices back at the $250 / oz. level.

Funny thing about history; it tends to repeat itself.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

NFP UGLY

                                    Hey, Let’s Trade Some Gold

In an economy only Chalky Soetero could love, even the BLS [Bureau of Lies & Statistics] couldn’t make up enough births, new business start ups, and people dropping out of the workforce to give the needed spin on today’s job numbers.

But hey, running the economy into the ground is hard work when you have fundraisers scheduled day in and day out. You have any idea how hard it is to party with the Hollywood types all week and then have to come home to MOOOOOchelle and be lectured about eating broccoli instead of cheeseburgers?

Back in the real world, gold took off today on hopes Weimar Ben has enough bad data in his quiver to justify full throttle hyper inflation full speed ahead into QE3 [and then QE4, QE5, ad infinitum nauseum] later this month at the scheduled Fed June meeting. 

So, just another $70+ range day. Ho hum.

My only hope for those that are long gold is that they get their collective wishes, because if Uncle Ben disappoints, well … I don’t want to go there because there might be kids around reading this and I don’t want to scare them. But at least for today, it looks like gold has bottomed for a while, and the $25 gap up on the NFP news filled some shorts at prices that left some stuff in their shorts [if ya know what I mean].

Not to be outdone, with record short spec positions in EURUSD, first let’s open the hatch door down, freeze the quote and order tickets for 30 seconds, then light the fuse to take us up almost 170 pips. That dealers intentionally freeze the order boxes even once in your lifetime should be cause enough to have them all taken out back of the woodshed and shot; not in the head because that would be quick. No, everywhere else.

Meanwhile …. In news you can really use.

                                    Which Adults Are Peeing?

It’s gonna get warm this weekend, and in the interest of making sure my readers are well informed and safe, you need to know that according to a recent poll conducted by the “Water Quality & Health Council”, fully 20% of adults admit to peeing in public pools.

“So, who’s up for hiking in the mountains?”

And because it’s gonna get hot out there this summer, remember: Amerika is known for its ingenuity.

Have a good weekend everyone.

-vegas

CHOOM COUNTRY, CHOOM MARKETS

                                Official Presidential Limousine

Our Narcissist-in-Chief spent the better part of his youth using/abusing drugs and alcohol. I’m sure he still has a clear mind. After all, if you intentionally wanted to economically destroy Amerika what would you do any different than he has done?

It looks like the gold market too is in some kind of drug induced state. Take today for instance; where else can you get 4 $5 rallies, a $7 rally, 2 $5 breaks, and to top it off a $20 break, all within 2 hours? And, the day has barely started! Obviously, some people need to clear their collective heads.

Maybe it’s from spending too much time in the Preezy Limo trying to suck in “bud smoke” off the roof. I dunno, just askin’, because what we are seeing in gold is pure unadulterated account destruction going on at the retail level. Open interest is dropping for a reason; nobody can handle these wicked spikes/drops that come out of nowhere multiple times during the U.S. session.

As if you needed to be reminded, gold has always had a reputation for stop hunts and dealer games. Throw in slippage on fills and you have cooked up a recipe for disaster. You really want to risk your account for a trade?

Meanwhile ….. over in fantasy land Europe, the Pol’s still pretend and play around like a solution to the continents problems are at hand. What they are missing is simply this: it’s not a liquidity problem it’s a solvency problem. Greece is gonna cost Europe a trillion Euros; in a country with roughly 11 million people, even if they were better workers than the Germans, there is no way that amount of money owed by 11 million people evahhhhhhhh gets paid back. Extend and pretend all you want, it ain’t gonna happen. Eat the losses and let’s get on with it.

But sadly, that these Pol’s would allow people for generations to suffer so that greedy bankers who made bets can recoup their collective bond losses at the public’s expense is nothing short of criminal. And until this changes, nothing is going to save Europe.

Tomorrow is NFP Friday; my favorite time of the month. Based on data received lately, I don’t know how the liars at BLS [Bureau of Lies and Statistics] can spin there way to a rosy number. In the “choom equity market” though, remember that bad news is good news because Weimar Ben stands at the ready for more QE. Nothing makes the prop desk traders over at Vampire Squid drool more than the thought of more money for the stock market.

Because as everyone knows, you are too stupid to know how bad things really are if only your stock portfolio is up and showing a 0.001 % gain. Nothing else matters, and with this new found sense of financial delight, you will happily [and blindly] go out and spend money and vote for Chalky Soetero in November. See how good things can be if only you would let them be good?

Back in the real world, away from Chalky Soetero and his “Choom gang”, things are a lot more clear; the jobs situation is worse, the inflation situation [especially food] is worse, Europe is in the process of going over a cliff, and of course FaceBook stock is 30% [or more] lower than a week ago.

So, put on that Bob Marley album, sit back and relax; I’m sure things are gonna work out.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

QE WHERE ARE YOU?

                                      Gold Trading Directions

Just a friendly reminder from our pals at JPM that the rock needs to be rolled up the hill one more time; in a research note today they are now predicting more QE from the ECB at the June and July monetary meetings with a cut in rates in September.

So, after a $40 rally off the lows, muppets clients now have an official reason to buy gold at today’s highs near 1577. Maybe some day the public wakes up, but I doubt it; after all, these are the smartest guys in the room remember? That the market will undoubtedly back off from here on “profit taking” [thank you CNBC money honeys] isn’t anything to worry about. Neither is the probable fact your investment adviser sold the market aggressively in the 1575-ish area while you were buying.

“Hey man, it’s just a coincidence.”

So, we now have QE baked into the gold cake not only from the Fed, but now from the ECB as well. Super; when they don’t deliver what then? Who is left to buy? Even if they deliver, if we are still in this price area of 1550 – 1600, who is going to take the lead and take on the Central Planners above 1630?

One thing I am fairly certain of is the desire, on the part of Chalky Soetero and his pals, to keep gold out of the news as election season heats up by the day and week. No way do they want the sheeple people of Amerika to wonder why gold is rising? They might get ideas.

On  the currency front, if it’s daylight in Europe, some politician is lying and desperately trying to convince someone, anyone, that Plan G will work [even though the trial balloons of Plan A-F were dismal in approach and can’t work]. We will get fireworks on the upside as over leveraged shorts will bail in a panic [like today for instance] but the big money knows Europe and the EURUSD are toast.

It isn’t a question of if, it’s only a matter of when; what weekend do they announce Greece is gone out of the Euro? Come every Sunday afternoon from here on out, every money manager on the planet will be glued to the screen to see what’s happening at the open in New Zealand.

And lest you think it’s only Greece, the fellas in Spain and Italy will be watching very closely to evaluate their exit options as well. Forget the politicos; if there lips are moving they are lying.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

WHEN GOOD NEWS IS TERRIBLE

                                         Take Notice Markets

All it took was a fantasy land slightly better housing number and you could here the QE3 air come out of the market balloon. Perceptions are everything; that and the fact Europe becomes more desperate and broken every day.

Catching a falling knife is always difficult and most retail specs can expect very bloody fingers for their efforts; the action below 1545 in gold was just brutal in terms of price change. So, here we are at the 1530 -1540 area as I write; remember 1599 Mrs. Watanabe? You know, rock up the hill, buy the dip sell the rip? I’m wondering where the remaining longs have their collective stops: 1520, 1500 maybe?

Any day the market is open seems like a good day to sell EURUSD. The root of the problem in Europe is that every politician over there has squandered their collective credibility over the last year and a half by bold-faced lying about the problem.

In a nutshell: when you loan money to deadbeats, don’t expect it back – EVER!

“I give you extra 1% - how that sound German swine?”

“Sure, here’s another €5 billion Euro’s.”

Every day they send out somebody to boldly lie where no man has gone before. How many times have one of them said everything is OK? If I had a nickel each time over the last 18 months, I could give the money to Greece and the problem would be solved!

Really, the whole point in having the Euro slime talk is to buy time and start short covering rallies that the big money can sell. With record shorts in the EURUSD [about 22 billion notational] all it takes is a small spark anywhere near the close and we start rallying like a dry Christmas tree on fire.

It will be interesting to see if gold can hold 1500. If it can’t I think it’s going to be an ugly, ugly affair going forward. I’m just going to throw this idea out there for you perma-bulls in gold to ponder. What if the gold market is factoring in a Romney win over Chalky Soetero and both houses of Congress are Republican? What if they slash taxes, let loose the energy industry, and balance the budget? Up until now, gold has been up 11 straight years; if that scenario plays out gold ain’t gonna be anywhere near 1500.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

ROLL ROCK UP HILL REDUX

                                       Attention Gold Buyers

I’ve had this nightmare dream before; I’m driving along and everything’s fine and then out-of-the-blue the rocks come falling down crushing my car and me inside. You wake up and realize it ain’t happenin’, but nonetheless for a few seconds it’s a little disturbing.

How many times have we seen this scenario: sharp rally, crush shorts, turn common tech indicators bullish, get public long [again] at or near the top within 100 hours?

As the world falls apart and specifically Europe implodes, the smartest people in the room have just bet, in the last 48 hours, that Weimar Ben will hit the Cntrl-P button over at the Mariner Eccles building and start QE3 in June. If we don’t get it, a whole lot of people are gonna be trapped inside my dream.

I’m going to go out on the proverbial prediction limb here.

I think we have seen the low in gold up and until the Fed meeting in June. I can see about 1550-1557 on the low side and maybe 1610-1625 on the upside until then. But here’s the rub; if we don’t get QE3 from the Fed in June, and 1530 -1525 subsequently gets taken out, we are headed for a major debacle in price on the downside. And with that comes many months of price congestion and basing before gold can ever hope to go higher.

Around the 1580 level and higher today I have seen the “nibble nibble BOOM!!” phenomena from the Central Planners. There’s no doubt in my mind they were heavy handed in the market today. What do you suppose that means?

While the entire world goes ga-ga over the FaceBook IPO today [expecially California State Tax Apparatchiks], Greece is toast, Spain implodes, and European GDP is falling rapidly. Granted we needed some kind of rally because so many people have piled into the short side of gold.

[Here’s a thought; what if FaceBook opens higher and closes lower? What happens then?]

But remember this: in a bear market [not just gold but any market] the rallies are killer – they come out of nowhere and they are vicious – and they convince a whole lot of traders that the trend has just changed and now we can pile into the long side of the trade. If you look at a daily chart of gold this is the type of action we have seen since 1800.

Ultimately, after the stupid money has piled into the wrong side, price rolls over and we get the rinse & repeat cycle we have seen ad infinitum nauseum  since last Fall; buy the rally get stopped out [pick number of days here ___ ] later.

You can rationalize a lot of things, but you can’t ignore the math; Europe is complete toast and the U.S. [add Japan too] is next. Stocks are so overvalued, pumped up via the Fed to get Chalky Soetero reelected, and give the illusion that things are just fine.

We have started to see stocks roll over world-wide; practically every major stock index is lower on the year. When the complete “risk off” comes, just remember gold isn’t immune.

Meanwhile … Chuckle of the day before the weekend.

Have a good weekend everyone.

-vegas

Update 3:15PM Chicago Time

In case you were wondering why I have Friday rules, I present EURUSD as prima facie evidence of what the Central Planners can do when conditions are thin and stops are on the plate. At 2:00 P.M. we had a melt up stop hunt in the EURUSD of about 60 pips within a few minutes on zero news.

Whatever can make your weekend can destroy your weekend. I wonder how many Euro traders are crying in beer as I write; only it won’t just last a few minutes, it will be there all weekend into the open on Sunday night. Been there done that once in 1980; ain’t ever happened since.

Sometimes it may seem to those who are new to trading and creating wealth that my methods can be restrictive and that I may miss some profit opportunities for no apparent reason. Lesson #1; first do no harm, then make money. I rest my case.

The Dow 30 closed near the lows of the day as FaceBook closed at $38. Another pump and dump scam Ma & Pa Kettle will eventually lose money.

Over the weekend [probably Sunday] I’ll have a special post. Tune in for details.

REALITY VS. DELUSION

                                          The Nerve Of  Him

“Everybody has a plan until I hit ‘em.”

            Mike Tyson

Is it any wonder kids growing up today are totally confused? There is their reality of school, where everything is text book nice and all outcomes are pretty, and then they get the rest of the day to see the total opposite. Bombarded with digital media promoting free sex, no rules, and anybody over 30 generally is evil and out if it, is it any wonder Ritalin sales are through the roof?

“So, what’s the plan kid?”

“Huh?”

15 years later they start trading, and with all the wonderful outcome based education under their collective belts, and being dumbed down to the point where nothing bad can happen because government can solve everything don’t-cha-know, reality meets delusion in a rather vicious headlong collision.

“So, generation numbskull trader, what’s the plan?”

“Huh?”

Does anybody [metaphorically speaking] under the age of 30 have any idea what gold really represents? Do they have any idea what the concept of “free markets” means? And, do they have the slightest clue just how corrupt and vile the U.S. government has become, with politicians in particular being total liars and hypocrites?

Every single day it seems the contrast between delusion and reality grows stronger. I can’t really decide which is the bigger farce; Europe pretending all is well or Chalky Soetero pretending he knows what he is doing.

Every day the reasons for buying gold grow stronger, and yet so do the reasons to sell it. Two things in life you can always count on; 1) God never lies, and 2) gold as a store of value over time.

As I get older, all I have are more questions.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

Update

Did I mention lying politicians?