IT’S QE OR ELSE

                              The Bernank: Man Of The Moment

Next week, the world literally turns its lonely eyes to the Mariner Eccles building for more “Hope & Change”.

“Ohhhhhhhh, Chalky Soetero is giving his umpteenth campaign speech?”

“Errrrrr, not quite.”

The world is hoping, praying really, that Weimar Ben opens the money printing monetary easing floodgates at the June Fed meeting. As with all things, the devil is in the details, and even if he comes through, the key will be if it was enough. Hide the kids if he does nothing.

The monkey wrench in the equation is Greece; with a newly elected socialist government only a couple of days old, and ready to tell the banksters in Brussels to go pound sand, how much of the taxpayers money does Ben give away?

Not to worry, Vampire Squid [GS] will let the moneycrats know what to deliver early next week before the meeting. The real question is which Belgian or French caterer is doing lunch. Remember, “The private sector is doing fine.”

Gold especially is subject to the “buy the rumor sell the fact” mantra of Trading 101. How many times have I warned [and been right by the way] that the rock gets rolled up the proverbial hill, only to be rolled back down when the Central Planners sense the public is now just a tad long the yellow stuff?

And on cue today, the EURUSD put on a blistering short covering rally because of course too many people are short the pair. Forget the disappointing retail sales figures; it’s all about QE and the “Hope” the Fed bails out Europe and saves the day; the “Change” of course is that something but failure will be the result. Now that’s what I call “Hope & Change” trader style.

Too bad it won’t change anything because Italy is next; say goodnight Europe, the party is over in 3 …. 2 ….. 1

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

QE WHERE ARE YOU?

                                      Gold Trading Directions

Just a friendly reminder from our pals at JPM that the rock needs to be rolled up the hill one more time; in a research note today they are now predicting more QE from the ECB at the June and July monetary meetings with a cut in rates in September.

So, after a $40 rally off the lows, muppets clients now have an official reason to buy gold at today’s highs near 1577. Maybe some day the public wakes up, but I doubt it; after all, these are the smartest guys in the room remember? That the market will undoubtedly back off from here on “profit taking” [thank you CNBC money honeys] isn’t anything to worry about. Neither is the probable fact your investment adviser sold the market aggressively in the 1575-ish area while you were buying.

“Hey man, it’s just a coincidence.”

So, we now have QE baked into the gold cake not only from the Fed, but now from the ECB as well. Super; when they don’t deliver what then? Who is left to buy? Even if they deliver, if we are still in this price area of 1550 – 1600, who is going to take the lead and take on the Central Planners above 1630?

One thing I am fairly certain of is the desire, on the part of Chalky Soetero and his pals, to keep gold out of the news as election season heats up by the day and week. No way do they want the sheeple people of Amerika to wonder why gold is rising? They might get ideas.

On  the currency front, if it’s daylight in Europe, some politician is lying and desperately trying to convince someone, anyone, that Plan G will work [even though the trial balloons of Plan A-F were dismal in approach and can’t work]. We will get fireworks on the upside as over leveraged shorts will bail in a panic [like today for instance] but the big money knows Europe and the EURUSD are toast.

It isn’t a question of if, it’s only a matter of when; what weekend do they announce Greece is gone out of the Euro? Come every Sunday afternoon from here on out, every money manager on the planet will be glued to the screen to see what’s happening at the open in New Zealand.

And lest you think it’s only Greece, the fellas in Spain and Italy will be watching very closely to evaluate their exit options as well. Forget the politicos; if there lips are moving they are lying.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

STOP HUNT MONDAY

                              Some Days You Feel Like The Fox

Ever since gold rallied above 1580 the other day, the “nibble nibble BOOM!” orders from the Central Planners have been hot and heavy. The manipulations can especially be seen in the last 30-60 seconds of most 5M candlesticks; only somebody who could care less about price would consistently allow Blythe and her crew to butcher their orders in this way.

I don’t think I can ever remember another time when price, from second to second, has been so chaotic and disjointed in gold. Watching prices, you have no idea if the next second is going to quote a bid anywhere near where it was a second earlier. What looks good one second literally stinks the next.

“Run little fox, run!”

Overnight, as if on cue, the “Lemmings in Asia” took the market up to the 1599 level. I guess when you sell it from 1560 all the way down to 1528 the previous 2 days, 1599 looks like a bargain buy.

“Mrs. Wantanabe, please go find a job will ya?”

Over in the currency arena, we got the “Flying Wedge of Death” going on in some of the majors, particularly EURUSD. We got record short positions in the Euro, so until some of these weak hands get shaken out, the market is subject to quick, sharp, and vicious short covering rallies, especially in the off hours and near the European close [9:30 A.M. – 10;30 A.M. Chicago time].

After the $140 sell off [1670 – 1530] in gold, we’ve now rallied back half-way to just in front of 1600. I would expect a few attempts at 1600, but ultimately I think the market needs to step back and do some backing and filling below 1580 before it can really go higher.

Ultimately, it’s going to be the Fed June Meeting that holds the short-term key for gold prices. If Weimar Ben throws cold water on further QE, price action is going to get ugly quick. Until then, prices probably will be contained in the 1550 – 1610 area; price will move on perceptions of change in the QE dynamic.

Really, what choice do they have but to print?

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

DON’T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT

                                            Sure, C’mon In

Yea, we’re open – not really – but if you’re dumb enough savvy enough to place those orders, we will surely fill ‘em.

Most markets are closed today for Good Friday, but some are open for 45 minutes, and some are open with $4.00 - $6.00 spreads [read XAUUSD].

I think I read somewhere where Jesus drove the moneychangers out of the temple – he didn’t invite them in. A $6.00 spread? I’ll bet the spread is tighter in an Outer Mongolia mining town. Oh well, such is life on an NFP Friday that also happens to be a Holiday.

Speaking of which, even Chalky Soetero’s sock puppets over at the BLS [Bureau of Lies and Statistics] couldn’t seasonally adjust there way to a bullish employment report today. By Wall Street standards a total miss at +120K, as the whisper number was above + 200K.

The way gold is acting [although it is hard to tell with 2 people actually trading with the dealer with a $5 + spread], some believe more QE is on the table sooner rather than later. We certainly can’t derive anything from today’s price action and will have to wait until Monday for the full impact. The way stock index futures and currency pairs are reacting [lower], I don’t think gold is out of the woods just yet and another test of 1612 and 1600 is in the cards sometime next week.

Have an enjoyable Holiday weekend everyone.

-vegas

THANK YOU FED

                                     Trading Manual For Today

Just another “Flying Wedge of Death” [FWD] day until the Fed minutes were released; then it was a gold bar large rock off a cliff. The Fed, under the delusional policies of Weimar Ben, has painted themselves into a corner.

On the one hand you got the Bernank, and on the other you got the hawks like Fisher. The problem for the markets [gold, oil, equities] is that they can’t stop the money spigot [QE whatever] or it’s over for the bulls; lookout below.

Just a hint maybe the “new” printed money might be delayed and you see what happens; gold down $40 and equities skid.

On the other hand, interest rates can never go up from here or else. Else what? Else the entire GDP of the U.S. will have to be used for just interest payments. Gig is up folks, the math says so.

Meanwhile, we have a Prez who is a complete narcissist and moron. Reelect this guy Amerika and the U.S. becomes Zimbabwe within months. Thank you Fed for telling us today just how screwed up this country really is and what your priorities will bring upon this country.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

ALMOST A NORMAL DAY

                                         In Trading Especially

Gold almost had a normal day.

With crude oil wilting today, there really wasn’t much selling pressure in the market, except on knee-jerk reactions to crude going down. Keep your eye on tomorrow’s prepared Congressional statements by “Weimar Ben”, as if I need to remind you what happened last time he went before Congress.

It could be pretty dull trading tonight ahead of this, so don’t be surprised to see a small range. While I don’t expect him to outright call for more QE, he isn’t going to turn off the printing press of easy money either. Support for more easing and we could easily see gold above 1800 by the end of the day. We’ll see what happens.

If in fact we get the small range into his testimony, one way or the other I would expect some kind of price fireworks to commence. Just be prepared for it.

Have a nice day everyone.

-vegas