VEGAS TRADES GOLD IMAGE

VEGAS TRADES GOLD IMAGE
Showing posts with label risk management. Show all posts
Showing posts with label risk management. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

WHY BUSINESS, GOVERNMENTS, & TRADERS GO BROKE


                                      Master Of The Obvious

First, a little housekeeping if you will; you will notice that I have changed my Twitter account. You can now follow me at @vegastrades and I will be commenting as “vegas trader”. So, why the switch?

For some unknown reason, my other account was suspended; no reason given and numerous emails into Twitter’s phantom support have produced, after 24 hours, absolutely nothing in terms of a response. I had sent out 5 tweets, and when I sent out a re-tweet from someone else, I got my account suspended.

So, the idiots at Twitter leave me no choice; I created a new account rather than wait around for the clueless staff to someday get around to my problem and then fix it.

This whole ordeal got me to thinking why businesses, governments, and yes even traders fail at what they do; they ignore reality and instead focus on fantasy.

If a business model is sound, a business will often still fail because they eventually cut corners, and one of the first is customer service. Back many years ago, I had an uncle who owned and operated a family steak house in the town I grew up. He was paranoid about customer satisfaction; he visited EVERY single table and talked with EVERY single customer to make sure their meal was to their delight. It didn’t matter if he knew them for 20 years and they came 3 times a week; he still took the time. If he even for a second thought something was wrong, or you weren’t satisfied, you got free drinks or even a free meal for the whole table.

Sure, some people exploited this, and he knew it, but he knew what other people in the restaurant biz intuitively fear; people say the meal was “fine” and then leave and tell everybody they know what a dump the place was and the food was terrible. He could lose customers and not even know it or be able to control or respond to what others say. His paranoia was the secret to his success.

Governments promote fantasy almost every single day, yet the reality can be summarized effectively with one word: Greece. What a bottomless pit of mind numbing kleptocrats stamping forms and playing pretend. I have visions of the staff and crew of the Titanic arranging the deck chairs and putting out fresh towels in first class as the ship keels over and sinks.

Traders fall prey to this lack of customer service as well. How many of you view your own account as that of a business? How many give your account the attention it deserves through proper risk management? Or instead, do you make “stupid trades” [definition = large losses] in the fantasy of “it will come back”.

“Yea, sure it will; just like your old girlfriend from high school. Just a sec please.”

The common thread that destroys each is that there is no fire in the belly to do the right thing. None. Doing the right thing is tough; it requires discipline and a desire for an outcome that is greater than just the desire for profit. People who are successful put other people first and instinctively know that by focusing on there needs, they will profit.

Just the other day, a high school girl running track in the State championship in Ohio was running the 3200 meters, when nearing the finish line another girl collapsed in front of her. At that time she was in 15th place and the girl that collapsed was in 14th place. She stopped and helped the other girl up and assisted her to the finish line making sure the other girl finished ahead of her. She has become a You Tube viral sensation. Here is the link for the whole story:


If this girl ran a business, and I needed any product she was selling, I would definitely give her a shot at my business, even if her products were slightly higher in price. Why? Because I know what kind of person she is and what she stands for; I value that.

As for Twitter, Greece, and the consistently large losers who trade; you got a lot to learn.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

Thursday, March 22, 2012

CASINO TRADING


                                         It Felt Like Gambling

Today’s trade had almost nothing to do with trading and everything to do with gambling. Skill meant very little; luck meant everything. Someday, when I grow up and get big, I wanna be a gold dealer. I’m all for free markets, but what I saw today makes me think of only one thing: market manipulation.

Just when you think you’ve seen just about everything, along comes a day like today where every stop in the market seemed like it got hit; up or down it didn’t make any difference, and all within 10 – 15 minutes.

Frankly, no matter your algorithm or method of trade, you were at the mercy of the dealers and the prices they provided. Long or short, nothing you did was “safe” from the stop hunters. Risk management? Fugetaboudit!

Some days this business makes no trading sense; today was one of them.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

Friday, March 16, 2012

THE WEASELS ARE IN CHARGE



                                   Add Dealers & Hedge Funds


If you have enough money, or more importantly can borrow any amount  you want from  the Fed at close to 0%, then you have not only the initiative but the means to shove markets wherever you want them.

At times you get caught the wrong way and get stung a little, but overall it’s a game that makes amounts of money an ordinary person would find unbelievable.

“Errr that shiny finance degree don’t mean crap here kid.”

“Sir, do you want me to do some kind of fundamental analysis on industrial demand and mine production?”

“What?? Hell no, we wouldn’t even know where to start. Sit back Jr. and watch me shove a pile of money into some stops!!”

“What’s a stop?”

And there you have it; in a nutshell that is the state of gold trading today.

Granted, there are the “Lemmings in Asia” who will buy every night of every day because they are super gold bugs, but for us traders the dealers, hedge funds, and banks are our greatest impediments to accumulating wealth.

The scam is easy to understand; you simply throw money at a market enough for it to move until you get it at a place where you reverse course. Rinse & repeat; count the money and pay bonuses.

The problem the gold market poses for a trader today is that you have no reference points for risk management. Since the melt-up on January 25, 2012, gold has lost its bearings as far as range and stop placement is concerned.

Add to this the continued criminal behavior of dealers, who jack spreads literally instantaneously and huge slippage if your order isn’t done right, and you have a trading scenario where nothing you use to gauge the market will make sense.

Elevator up; out the window on the way down. If your stop gets hit on the way so much the better. Having fun yet?

And what do you suppose the main purpose of Centrally Planned gold trading is?

Why of course it is to punish you for having the audacity of questioning the power elite by trying to take advantage of their disastrous monetary and fiscal policies.

And what better way to punish you than by having dozens of spikes/drops, $10 / oz. moves in 5 – 10 minutes, stop hunts, and reversals?

Most retail traders are like fish in a lake; bait the hook and throw it in the water and they will bite!

I’m not happy about these market conditions at the moment, but I know how to deal with it effectively. Have a plan, pick your spot [or spots], lower your volume to give you more flexibility, don’t place your stop where everybody else does, make your trade a “free trade” when available, and lastly at the very first sign of price reversal click the button and take the money.

Make them pay you, not the other way around.

Have a good weekend everyone.

-vegas

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

THE OTHER SHOE



                                 Slip Or Get Hit; Take Your Pick


As I stated after last Wednesday, look out for the other shoe as it drops.

Meanwhile in Asia tonight, I’m sure the lemmings will be out in full buying force thereby ensuring a test of today’s low by the time the U.S. session gets rolling.

“Guys, listen to me: stop buying this stuff every night. Give it a rest so we can bottom out here. Geeeeesh!”

The major problem trading gold today was risk management. Most of the day was involved with “the 15 minute cha-cha”: up, up cha-cha-cha; down, down cha-cha-cha.

“$5 down, $6up, $7 down, $8 up cha-cha-cha; Hey, I’m not stepping on your account toes am I? Well, have a cookie! HEY, I thought you wanted to dance?"

So, where do you put your stop in this hyperbolic mess? Looking at a 5M candlestick today should convince you that $3 - $5 / oz. stops would have gotten your account hurt. So what do you do; go to $10 stops or $15 stops? If so, and you by chance get taken out; please explain to me how you plan to make it back? [Hint: you can’t]

Today’s action I define as “the flying wedge of death”; each break and subsequent rally get bigger, thereby creating a wedge that gets bigger [thus stopping you out on each one].I have always treated these types of days the same (no matter the market); I walk away and don’t trade. And that’s the reason I didn’t trade today.

I want to bring up the issue of the 800 lb. gorilla in the room. I’m referring to the ETF [Exchange Traded Fund] GLD. This ETF is one of the world’s largest holders of gold bullion, with holdings of thousands of metric tones.

What happens if millions of people redeem their shares and want to get out? Where do you go to sell hundreds of tonnes of gold because you have redemptions to fill within 2 days?

Gold has been up 10 years in a row. There has not been a bear market in gold SINCE the inception of GLD. Nobody really knows what will happen if the public sours on gold and decides to go someplace else with their funds.

I may buy breaks, but I don’t buy waterfalls. What we saw last Wednesday [Feb. 29,2012], when gold broke over $100 / oz., and a little bit today as gold broke about $30 / oz., will seem like child’s play when gold eventually enters another serious bear market.

I’m not saying we are there, so don’t read into or between the lines. I still think gold hasn’t seen its high in this cycle, but next time you have the urge to try and pick a day trade waterfall bottom, think of the traders who lost 50% + of their accounts last Wednesday and whether or not it is worth the risk. I’m saying it emphatically isn’t.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

Thursday, March 1, 2012

A DYSFUNCTIONAL MARKET



                          Go UP! No Wait Go Down! Ahh Go Up!


Welcome to a dysfunctional market.

I don’t say this because I lost a couple of hundred bucks in gold today. I say this because of 3 factors that have become apparent within the last couple of days in gold trading.

1)      The majority of 5M candlesticks today had a minimum range of $2 - $3 and many had ranges exceeding $5/ oz. This tells me liquidity has left the marketplace, with many traders having been destroyed; leaving a dealer community that jacks the price and spread at will.
2)      Price spikes and drops exceeding $7 - $10 / oz., which have no follow through.
3)      Last but not least, the absolute criminal behavior yesterday in the $50 / oz. + stop hunt sell-off. We all know gold, along with silver, is a manipulated market. Rumors floating around of government induced selling by JPM are rampant. So, when does the next shoe drop?

One of the biggest problems you face is one of risk management. Where do you put your stops? If you witnessed the trade today, there is no way you could trade gold with a $3 - $5 / oz. stop; you would have gotten whipsawed something fierce. So what do you do? Do you go to $10 stops, or $15 stops?

As I stated yesterday, this is “postal volatility”. We’ve gone from nothing to the speed of light in 2 days. If I had a nickel for every time gold rallied and broke $5 / oz. today, I could retire rich.

This is an invitation for a disaster. The algorithm isn’t going to do much good when conditions are dead or postal. You might get a decent signal with postal conditions, but what do you do when you get long and 15 minutes later it’s down $8? Now what? OK, so you sell; and in the next 25 minutes it’s up $15. You buy again; rinse and repeat. How long can your account take this?

Be very careful how you trade this animal.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas