NFP UGLY

                                    Hey, Let’s Trade Some Gold

In an economy only Chalky Soetero could love, even the BLS [Bureau of Lies & Statistics] couldn’t make up enough births, new business start ups, and people dropping out of the workforce to give the needed spin on today’s job numbers.

But hey, running the economy into the ground is hard work when you have fundraisers scheduled day in and day out. You have any idea how hard it is to party with the Hollywood types all week and then have to come home to MOOOOOchelle and be lectured about eating broccoli instead of cheeseburgers?

Back in the real world, gold took off today on hopes Weimar Ben has enough bad data in his quiver to justify full throttle hyper inflation full speed ahead into QE3 [and then QE4, QE5, ad infinitum nauseum] later this month at the scheduled Fed June meeting. 

So, just another $70+ range day. Ho hum.

My only hope for those that are long gold is that they get their collective wishes, because if Uncle Ben disappoints, well … I don’t want to go there because there might be kids around reading this and I don’t want to scare them. But at least for today, it looks like gold has bottomed for a while, and the $25 gap up on the NFP news filled some shorts at prices that left some stuff in their shorts [if ya know what I mean].

Not to be outdone, with record short spec positions in EURUSD, first let’s open the hatch door down, freeze the quote and order tickets for 30 seconds, then light the fuse to take us up almost 170 pips. That dealers intentionally freeze the order boxes even once in your lifetime should be cause enough to have them all taken out back of the woodshed and shot; not in the head because that would be quick. No, everywhere else.

Meanwhile …. In news you can really use.

                                    Which Adults Are Peeing?

It’s gonna get warm this weekend, and in the interest of making sure my readers are well informed and safe, you need to know that according to a recent poll conducted by the “Water Quality & Health Council”, fully 20% of adults admit to peeing in public pools.

“So, who’s up for hiking in the mountains?”

And because it’s gonna get hot out there this summer, remember: Amerika is known for its ingenuity.

Have a good weekend everyone.

-vegas

CHOOM COUNTRY, CHOOM MARKETS

                                Official Presidential Limousine

Our Narcissist-in-Chief spent the better part of his youth using/abusing drugs and alcohol. I’m sure he still has a clear mind. After all, if you intentionally wanted to economically destroy Amerika what would you do any different than he has done?

It looks like the gold market too is in some kind of drug induced state. Take today for instance; where else can you get 4 $5 rallies, a $7 rally, 2 $5 breaks, and to top it off a $20 break, all within 2 hours? And, the day has barely started! Obviously, some people need to clear their collective heads.

Maybe it’s from spending too much time in the Preezy Limo trying to suck in “bud smoke” off the roof. I dunno, just askin’, because what we are seeing in gold is pure unadulterated account destruction going on at the retail level. Open interest is dropping for a reason; nobody can handle these wicked spikes/drops that come out of nowhere multiple times during the U.S. session.

As if you needed to be reminded, gold has always had a reputation for stop hunts and dealer games. Throw in slippage on fills and you have cooked up a recipe for disaster. You really want to risk your account for a trade?

Meanwhile ….. over in fantasy land Europe, the Pol’s still pretend and play around like a solution to the continents problems are at hand. What they are missing is simply this: it’s not a liquidity problem it’s a solvency problem. Greece is gonna cost Europe a trillion Euros; in a country with roughly 11 million people, even if they were better workers than the Germans, there is no way that amount of money owed by 11 million people evahhhhhhhh gets paid back. Extend and pretend all you want, it ain’t gonna happen. Eat the losses and let’s get on with it.

But sadly, that these Pol’s would allow people for generations to suffer so that greedy bankers who made bets can recoup their collective bond losses at the public’s expense is nothing short of criminal. And until this changes, nothing is going to save Europe.

Tomorrow is NFP Friday; my favorite time of the month. Based on data received lately, I don’t know how the liars at BLS [Bureau of Lies and Statistics] can spin there way to a rosy number. In the “choom equity market” though, remember that bad news is good news because Weimar Ben stands at the ready for more QE. Nothing makes the prop desk traders over at Vampire Squid drool more than the thought of more money for the stock market.

Because as everyone knows, you are too stupid to know how bad things really are if only your stock portfolio is up and showing a 0.001 % gain. Nothing else matters, and with this new found sense of financial delight, you will happily [and blindly] go out and spend money and vote for Chalky Soetero in November. See how good things can be if only you would let them be good?

Back in the real world, away from Chalky Soetero and his “Choom gang”, things are a lot more clear; the jobs situation is worse, the inflation situation [especially food] is worse, Europe is in the process of going over a cliff, and of course FaceBook stock is 30% [or more] lower than a week ago.

So, put on that Bob Marley album, sit back and relax; I’m sure things are gonna work out.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

IF YOU’RE NOT NERVOUS YOU SHOULD BE

                                       Good For Traders Too

The real news today isn’t that Europe is toast; geez, we’ve all known that for some time. Only the politicians think that with just one more conference they can fool pretty much all of us find an answer to a non computable problem. Who else would sit around and try to figure out how 2 + 2 = 22 and then with a straight face tell you it is true?

No, the real news is that interest rates around the world are flattening big time. Pick a maturity, it doesn’t make any difference; everything is approaching zero or below.

The ramifications of this are mind blowing. What the Central Planners are attempting, while everyone else flees to safety in Germany, Japan, and U.S. government paper, is forcing you out of cash and into just about anything else. The rationale here is simple: money that lies around getting interest just isn’t productive.

So, while the Cntrl-P button over at the Mariner Eccles building is on full speed ahead and the dollar is getting debased by the minute, as of today your after tax yield on 10 YR. U.S. Gobermint toilet paper is less than 1%. Break out the party hats; you can loan spendaholic deadbeat politicians money for 10 years and get nothing back. Ten years from now what is that money going to be worth?

That this is terribly destructive to those who are near or in retirement isn’t really a concern of the Hope & Change crowd. So, how do Ma & Pa Kettle, besides the Ponzi known as Social Security, earn a return on their life savings and work? Easy Peezee; they don’t.

Don’t worry, we have all kinds of Gobermint benefits for you folks; food stamps [oops, I mean nutritional assistance], section 8 retirement housing, heating & cooling bill help, supplemental Medicaid and/or Medicare, and the list could go on for pages.

Rights enumerated in our Constitution are God given; benefits dolled out by Government are given and taken by the whim of the political elite.

“Hey Grandma, you haven’t eaten your broccoli today! Get with the program or we may just have to cancel your Medicaid. You are undermining the future of your grandchildren by unnecessarily raising health care costs.”

Given the fact that, on the whole, the Amerikan public is dumber than a bag of carrots, this won’t dawn on the masses until their IRA’s and 401k’s are confiscated or forced to buy Gobermint paper. Even then, though, I’m betting more than half will care more about American Idol and college football than the fate of the country.

At every step of the way, government will do whatever is necessary to keep the masses soothed and stupid. That they are intentionally robbing people of their life savings and productivity, right in front of their eyes, should make you nervous.

You are nervous aren’t you?

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas

IS THIS TIME DIFFERENT?

                                 No, I’m Thinkin’ Bigger Issues

Except for the occasional rally to blister the shorts, EURUSD looks set to go lower; much lower. At the same time, though, we got record short positions over at the Crimex CME in spec Euro positions. Will the universe let all these shorts be right?

Markets face this reality all the time; take gold bugs for instance. I know people who always buy the top in gold, swear they are never going to sell because the world is a mess, etc. and then sell the bottom days/weeks/months later.

What have we just seen in gold? Does 2 to 3 day rally [$50 - $75] that gets public long [again] meet $25 - $35 decline in 40 – 60 minutes a few days later sound familiar? Uhhhhh, yea.

Anyone that knows Forex history will tell you that one-way bets have a way of not being so one-way. Now, that doesn’t mean that can’t stay one-way for extended periods; what it means is that when it ends it will be ugly with a capital U. We had a 2000 pip rally at the end of 2008 [in 10 days] in Euro from about 1.26 to 1.46. The carry trades are notorious for disaster; go ask Mrs. Watanabe about GBPJPY that was a one-way street for years and then gave it all back [and more] within 3 months.

What gives the shorts in the Euro a better than even chance of being a long way from being over on the down side are the politicians; ever seen a bigger bunch of worthless blow bags?

Rumors and leaks are pieces of credibility that have to be saved, not spent so your mistress can get a new Mercedes Benz. As long as they blow smoke, and remain in denial, the Euro will not have any rally legs to take it anywhere.

Yes Virginia, this time MAY be different.

Have a good day everyone.

-vegas