Wednesday, May 23, 2012


                                         Take Notice Markets

All it took was a fantasy land slightly better housing number and you could here the QE3 air come out of the market balloon. Perceptions are everything; that and the fact Europe becomes more desperate and broken every day.

Catching a falling knife is always difficult and most retail specs can expect very bloody fingers for their efforts; the action below 1545 in gold was just brutal in terms of price change. So, here we are at the 1530 -1540 area as I write; remember 1599 Mrs. Watanabe? You know, rock up the hill, buy the dip sell the rip? I’m wondering where the remaining longs have their collective stops: 1520, 1500 maybe?

Any day the market is open seems like a good day to sell EURUSD. The root of the problem in Europe is that every politician over there has squandered their collective credibility over the last year and a half by bold-faced lying about the problem.

In a nutshell: when you loan money to deadbeats, don’t expect it back – EVER!

“I give you extra 1% - how that sound German swine?”

“Sure, here’s another €5 billion Euro’s.”

Every day they send out somebody to boldly lie where no man has gone before. How many times have one of them said everything is OK? If I had a nickel each time over the last 18 months, I could give the money to Greece and the problem would be solved!

Really, the whole point in having the Euro slime talk is to buy time and start short covering rallies that the big money can sell. With record shorts in the EURUSD [about 22 billion notational] all it takes is a small spark anywhere near the close and we start rallying like a dry Christmas tree on fire.

It will be interesting to see if gold can hold 1500. If it can’t I think it’s going to be an ugly, ugly affair going forward. I’m just going to throw this idea out there for you perma-bulls in gold to ponder. What if the gold market is factoring in a Romney win over Chalky Soetero and both houses of Congress are Republican? What if they slash taxes, let loose the energy industry, and balance the budget? Up until now, gold has been up 11 straight years; if that scenario plays out gold ain’t gonna be anywhere near 1500.

Have a good day everyone.


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