Friday, April 13, 2012


                                          I Bet He Trades Gold

It’s Friday, so that means something stupid [at least once, probably more] will definitely happen in the marketplace sometime today. OK, in 3…2…1…

How about that $5 dive at 10:55 A.M. [Chicago time]?  Twenty minutes later what $5 drop? Was your sell stop in there from yesterday? I expected this stop hunt next week, but alas you can’t stop the central planners when they get an idea.

“Errrr, hang on a sec there vegas, what makes you think we’re done yet?”

“Well, you really can’t keep them planners from planning now can you?”

And just when you think it’s safe to swim in the water -  KABOOOOM! Nice drop over the Noon hour to the low. If you’re long what’s another $10 / oz on the downside? OK, not enough punishment for ya today and you say you need more?

“Sure, c’mon in and get long some more; how about a move down to 1649?”

Welcome to Friday trouble;  we have your reservation and we’ve been waiting for you.

Back in the day, I hated trading in the last 90 minutes of the session; just too much can happen that gets you in trouble. Today, that distinction goes to Friday in our 24/5 trading environment. Spikes, drops, more spikes, etc., etc. I saw more $1 moves in 15 seconds today than I have seen in all the other days combined. So, make whatever, and take the next train to Clarksville.

The official version of the day’s events, by the financial press who don’t have a clue, will be that China GDP [reported last night] came in a bit soft of expectations and that led to softness in gold. Really? How about it’s Friday and the stuff is up about $40 / oz. and you got bills to pay and a significant other that wants some money for something? You decide. [Well, it was up $40.]

Of course, as today proves in spades, we always have to be mindful of the IBC owned by the Fed, traded at the JPM prop desk, that can put spot gold anywhere they want, anytime they want over the course of a day. Not so great over the long run, but any given day? Sure.

That’s why you always have to trade with stops. I know, I know, I can hear your screams of anguish as I write; but the God awful truth is you can’t trade without ‘em. Because as stupid as you might feel about getting your stop hit today at 1662 or 1654 or 1649, imagine the nausea of pushing the button at 1620. Now you’re really talking stupid.

Over at my PAMM website [ ] I’ve put up the daily Fib cycle charts for XAUUSD, EURJPY, and AUDUSD. I’ll be doing this every Friday to try and give you a current count of where each market is at; this way you don’t have to waste time going back to see where we were [de nada] or wonder where we are at now.

Have a good weekend everyone.


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